Friday, May 12, 2006

Rollercoaster

I had quite the eventful Thursday night at the tables. I kicked off with a little Party $100NL with Weak, and got kicked in the teeth for $45. Oh well, it happens. We then decided to jump into Rebuy Madness. Let's just say that it got expensive for me, and I didn't go anywhere. Wheeeeeeeee!

I then decided, you know, screw it - back to Party. The deck proceeded to hit me in the face, and I encouraged the donkeys on there to donate money to me. In just over an hour I was up about $200. And that's when it happened. The hand.

Interestingly enough it was almost a mirror image of the hand Waffles posted on his blog. I was dealt AA, and bumped it up my standard raise, and received one caller. Flop came down 7c-6h-9c. I bet out the pot, and was re-raised to almost twice the pot. I thought about folding. I really did. There were so many hands out there that could have me beaten (a set, a made straight), but after deliberating I re-raised and we got all our chips in. The opponent turned out to have a flush draw and a gutshot draw. The gutshot hit on the turn, and I shipped my stack over.

After doing the math it's basically a coinflip (slight edge to me) on the flop, and the fact is given that there were so many hands he could be holding that had me beat, I think it was a laydown I should have made. Easy to say in retrospect I guess - if I had won the hand maybe I would feel differently, and be congratulating myself on my read and my guts. Love to hear your opinions though.

5 Comments:

  • Maybe thats just the essence of poker.. make hands vs draws.. on that flop with a huge raise you probably should have folded and waited for a better position.. but when the cards were turned over it became a classic race..

    By Blogger SirFWALGMan, at 12:21 PM  

  • This is different from Waffle's hand in that you had AA, not 99, otherwise it's very similar.

    The guy with 99 had TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA that also beat him, while you didn't have to worry about those hands.

    I think that although you realized there were a lot of hands that beat you, ultimately you decided that you probably had the best hand most of the time. I don't know if you had a read on the guy or not, but you made the right play in that given hand, and since you had AA I would go as far as to say you made the right play in the long run.

    Until you start finding you're making those plays and they're not good decisions (ie you're not a favorite when the money goes in) then I think you should continue making plays like in this hand with AA unless you're just sick of the variance and don't care about losing some money by avoiding small edges (in this particular hand, you lose more money in the long run by folding and that's why it was the correct play).

    What I do in your situation when I suspect they may be on a draw is to just call the raise on the flop, and stick it all in on a good turn; a lot of times people will just call anyway, and it reduces variance while giving you a bigger edge, which is important especially if you think you're a better player.

    Just to further relay what I was saying on Waffle's blog: say the flop is slightly lower cards but just as coordinated, you would fold 99, correct? Of course you would, and that's why the guy with 99 played it horribly, but your play in this hand with AA is solid as long as you have a bankroll since you only have a small edge.

    By Blogger DP, at 12:44 PM  

  • Unless this guy is a complete donk or I have a very laggy image, I would fold here. The amount of times this guy has 88 or a flush draw (with a gutshot) makes up for the amount of times that you are drawing extremely thin, even dead.

    By Blogger Wes, at 1:14 PM  

  • Garth, we were chatting the other day about Barry G taking $1 and turning it into 20,000. It was actually Chris Ferguson and the details are here: http://i.fulltiltpoker.com/images/ourTeam/audio/Pod02-Jesus-Bankroll.mp3

    By Blogger Jules, at 4:42 PM  

  • I think the $1 into $20k thing is complete BS and was pure luck.

    By Blogger DP, at 1:37 AM  

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